Energy, Climate Change, and U.S. Regulatory Policy

Long before there was serious consideration given in the United States (or other countries) to enacting public policies to address the risk of climate change, regulatory policies existed in the electric power and other energy sectors, as well as in areas as diverse as banking, commercial airlines, trucking, railroads, and telecommunications.  There is no one who is better equipped to place recent developments in climate change policy into this historical context of U.S. regulation than my podcast guest, Paul Joskow, the Elizabeth and James Killian Professor of Economics emeritus at MIT and former President and CEO of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation in New York City.  You can listen to our conversation in the latest episode of my podcast, “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”  Our full conversation is here.

In these podcasts, I converse with leading experts from academia, government, industry, and NGOs.  Obviously, Paul Joskow fits very well within this group, as a respected international expert and renowned scholar on myriad topics, including industrial organization, energy and environmental economics, and regulatory policy. During his years at the Sloan Foundation, he launched several new programs in economics, and a program in energy and the environment.

Paul is the former chair of the MIT Department of Economics and director of the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.  He is also a Distinguished Fellow of the American Economic Association, a Fellow of the Econometric Society and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and – I’m pleased to say – an Associate Scholar of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.  

James Poterba, Nobel Laureate Peter Diamond, Paul Joskow, and Olivier Blanchard at the Nobel Banquet, Stockholm, Sweden, December 2010.

In discussing recent changes in regulatory policy affecting electric power and other energy sectors, Joskow reflects on the fact that “the big change that has taken place in the last 20 or 25 years has been restructuring these industries so that we could rely more on competition and less on regulation. It started with the natural gas industry and the oil industry, and then during the 1980s and 1990s, and ultimately around 2000, it resulted in restructuring and the creation of competitive wholesale electricity markets and retail competition in many U.S. states, in Europe, and in other countries.”

When I ask Paul how current political polarization is affecting climate change policy in the United States, he responds that it is having a “significant effect on the ways in which the electric power sector in the U.S. is adapting to climate change and implementing policies to mitigate climate change. And because of partisanship, there’s a lot of difference between [what’s happening in] the blue states and the red states.”

Joskow gives the Biden Administration mixed reviews on climate policy in its first year in office.

“I think the administration has its heart in the right place in the sense that we need to adopt policies that will mitigate, reduce, and eventually eliminate greenhouse gas emissions. They’ve adopted policies which I would consider to be largely non-market-based policies. They’ve resisted pricing carbon emissions. And I think that significantly complicates moving forward in an efficient way,” he says. “The absence of a national policy makes it even worse because rather than having a coherent U.S. policy, we have states that have adopted their own policies and states that have resisted any policies, and that’s become kind of a mess in my view.”

Paul also says that while he is pessimistic about the possibility that the U.S. will succeed in adopting a coherent greenhouse gas mitigation policy over the next few years, he is more confident that the Europeans and Chinese will make progress on that front, and that in the U.S. and elsewhere there are market forces at work that will help in the long run, particularly the declining costs of wind and solar power.

“Work we’ve done at MIT suggests you get quite a bit, in the long run, of diffusion of wind and solar into the system just on straight economic grounds. There’s a lot of R&D going on [in] other technologies and electricity that do not produce CO2 emissions,” he notes. “There’s interest in small nuclear plants, and there’s interest in alternative fuel cycles, the Allam [power] cycle, which basically uses CO2 to drive a turbine and then sequesters it. There’s work going on in carbon capture and sequestration.”

But political reality intrudes, as Paul Joskow observes, “So, there’s a lot of stuff going on, but I think we’re suffering, especially in the U.S., from the lack of a really coherent set of policies to which the entire country is committed.”

For this and much more, I hope you will listen to my complete conversation with Paul Joskow, the 32nd episode in the Environmental Insights series, with future episodes scheduled to drop each month.  You can find a transcript of our conversation at the website of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.  Previous episodes have featured conversations with:

“Environmental Insights” is hosted on SoundCloud, and is also available on iTunes, Pocket Casts, Spotify, and Stitcher.

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Thinking about the Institutional Dimensions of Climate Change Policy

Most economists tend to neglect the institutional and political dimensions of proposed climate change policies, whereas political scientists, policymakers, and stakeholder groups frequently give primary attention to these considerations.  This is demonstrated by my recent podcast conversation with Navroz Dubash, professor at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, and a Coordinating Lead Author of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  You can listen to our conversation in the latest episode of my podcast, “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”  Our full conversation is here.

In these podcasts, I converse with leading experts from academia, government, industry, and NGOs.  Navroz Dubash fits well within this group, as a respected international expert on the politics of climate change policy and governance, the political economy of energy and water resources, and the regulatory state in the developing world.  In addition, he was previously a senior associate at the World Resources Institute and a policy analyst at the Environmental Defense Fund.

In discussing pragmatic frameworks necessary for the implementation of effective climate change policy, Dubash explains why international institutions are absolutely essential.

“Climate change in a sense is now a problem with a clock. We have a ticking clock if you’re going to meet two degrees, and even more so if you meet [the goal of limiting the increase in global temperatures below] 1.5 degrees. It’s not enough for every country to do what they can. We have to be measuring progress against what is determined to be necessary by science. So, we have to have some process through which policies and actions are assessed and evaluated.”

This is where, Dubash says, international institutions and rules have a critical role to play.

“What is the mechanism through which future [emissions reduction] targets translate into current action? There needs to be some kind of interlinking mechanism through which we both decide what target is reasonable, as well as think back to what we have to do today in order to achieve those targets. And if there are obstacles to that action, how we overcome those obstacles? All of those tasks really require institutions,” he says.

I ask Navroz to talk about the differences between China and India, since they are sometimes (incorrectly) lumped together in conversations about climate change.  He describes the differences in the context of both countries attempting to reduce their emissions in line with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

“In a sense, China has now over the last 20 years built up its infrastructure to the point where it can start thinking about in a sense what the transition is to a low carbon future. India has actually not built up its infrastructure. And we are an interesting place because our emissions are likely to grow for a while longer in order to meet development needs. Now, the trick is going to be how can India do this with a shallower increase in emissions than China exhibited?,” he says. “To unwind a coal or fossil economy actually will have ripple effects throughout the larger political economy of India. And so that it’s not just the economic costs that matter, but also the transaction costs.”

Navroz Dubash remarks that the long-term potential for climate policy to succeed depends heavily on the internal politics in nations that have voluntarily pledged under the terms of the Paris Agreement to reduce their carbon emissions in coming years.

“I think the positive part of Paris for me was that it essentially recognized that progress on climate change is not going to come because of hectoring or peer pressure at the international level. It’s going to come because national politics in country after country shift, where countries find ways of telling a story about how low carbon futures are good for them economically and can sell that politically to their own people. And Paris basically gave countries space to figure out how to tell that story and make it happen.”

For this and much more, I hope you will listen to my complete conversation with Navroz Dubash, the 31st episode in the Environmental Insights series, with future episodes scheduled to drop each month.  You can find a transcript of our conversation at the website of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.  Previous episodes have featured conversations with:

“Environmental Insights” is hosted on SoundCloud, and is also available on iTunes, Pocket Casts, Spotify, and Stitcher.

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A Call for Pragmatic Climate Policies

Economists, including myself, have long favored carbon-pricing policies – either carbon taxes or cap-and-trade – as the best approach to reducing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) in large, complex economies – on the basis of:  feasibility of limiting emissions from hundreds of millions of point and non-point sources; short-term cost-effectiveness in the face of highly heterogeneous abatement costs associated with highly diverse sources; and long-term effectiveness and efficiency by bringing about carbon-friendly technological change. 

Although economists would therefore argue that carbon-pricing policies will be a necessary element of a truly meaningful policy portfolio, they would not claim that they will be sufficient, partly because of the presence of other market failures (such as principal-agent problems in the context of energy-efficiency technology adoption decisions in renter-occupied properties, and information spillovers leading to insufficient private investments in research and development).

But there is another reason for the insufficiency of carbon-pricing policies, and that reason is captured by a single word:  politics.  It has become increasingly clear that in the United States carbon-pricing policies do not have sufficient constituencies among either conservative Republicans or “progressive” liberal Democrats to become a central element of meaningful climate change policy.  Hence, there is increasing recognition – even by economists – that more attention needs to be given to other, so-called “second-best” policies, which may be more costly but will also be more politically feasible.

This point is made in compelling fashion by Gilbert Metcalf, Professor of Economics at Tufts University and a long-time analyst, expert, and advocate of the use of carbon taxes, in the latest episode of our podcast, “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”  You can hear Gib’s plea for broader thinking by listening to our conversation here.

In these podcasts, I converse with leading experts from academia, government, industry, and NGOs.  Gib Metcalf fits well in this group, as a long-time Professor of Economics at Tufts, a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a University Fellow at Resources For The Future, an Associate Scholar of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program, and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environment and Energy at the U.S. Department of the Treasury (2011-2012).  He has spent much of his career working on policy design and evaluation in the area of energy and climate change, both in academia and government.

Gib Metcalf’s call for pragmatism and broader thinking on climate change policy by the economics community is particularly striking (and compelling) because of his extensive analysis over more than a decade and his strong advocacy for the development of a U.S. carbon tax.  This is exemplified by his excellent 2019 book, Paying for Pollution: Why a Carbon Tax is Good for America (Oxford University Press). 

As a longtime proponent of a carbon tax to affix a social price on CO2 emissions, Metcalf is particularly convincing when he acknowledges in our conversation that he is now convinced that a carbon tax is not a practical option in today’s exceptionally partisan political climate.

“I am a firm believer that we should do the most efficient policies possible, and I think carbon pricing is precisely the way to do that. I prefer a carbon tax to cap-and-trade, I think for a number of reasons … but the political environment is such that, that’s just not going to happen,” he says. “And meanwhile, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to rise. So given, that I think we are obligated, those of us who care about the climate, to promote policies that will reduce emissions now, even if they’re not necessarily our most desirable policies.”

So, Metcalf argues that the Biden Administration should consider regulatory actions and executive orders in addition to statutory subsidies to give polluters incentives to seek cleaner energy alternatives.  Commenting on the serious legal challenges that some regulatory initiatives are likely to face (particularly given the 6-3 conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court), he offers a cause for optimism:

“I see less of a problem with fuel economy standards [by] ratcheting those up. So, we can do something in transportation.  I think we’ll [also] use tax credits in the electricity sector instead of regulation and perhaps we’ll do the same in buildings, but that gets to the third leg of what I would call a policy tripod in a third best world, which is R&D spending. And here, I think the R&D spending really needs to be focused on the technologies that have the greatest potential to lower the cost of clean energy.”

Gib Metcalf argues that production tax credits can be used to encourage further development of clean energy options, including wind power, but they should be designed in a way that will account for the increasingly negative impacts of carbon emissions.  

“My recommendation is that we ought to tie that tax credit to the social cost of carbon.  Given the official social cost of carbon numbers that the Biden Administration is using, that would be about a two and a half cents per kilowatt hour production tax credit. So, it doesn’t change the [tax] credit now, but as the social cost of carbon rises over time, then the production tax credit should rise over time.”

Gib Metcalf and the author on a panel at COP21 in Paris in 2015

At the end of our conversation, I ask Gib Metcalf for his thoughts on the current, prominent youth movements pressing for more aggressive action on climate change.  His response is that he was initially skeptical about their impact, thinking of them as little more than a “side show” to meaningful action through the international climate negotiations, for example.  But that is no longer the case.

“I’ve actually changed my mind entirely.  I’m more pessimistic [now] about where the negotiations will get us given the urgency of action. But the youth movements, Greta Thunberg and others, are really, to me, incredibly important in that they are driving public opinion and bringing media attention to the problem, in a way that I think is extremely valuable.  So, I see them as just absolutely essential.”

I raise the question of whether this very prominent youth activism is an age effect (hence likely to become more moderate as young people become adults) or a cohort effect (likely to retain its strength over time).  Gib responds that the young people involved in these climate movements are likely to remain engaged.

“I think the current youth movements see a very clear stake for themselves in terms of the damages that we’re seeing in the world today because of climate change. So, I think that gives them a more enduring stake that may outlast their youth.”  

That’s an excellent, optimistic note on which our conversation comes to a close.

For this and much more, I hope you will listen to my complete conversation with Gib Metcalf, the 30th episode in the Environmental Insights series, with future episodes scheduled to drop each month.  You can find a transcript of our conversation at the website of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.  Previous episodes have featured conversations with:

“Environmental Insights” is hosted on SoundCloud, and is also available on iTunes, Pocket Casts, Spotify, and Stitcher.

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